Análise espacial do risco de incêndios florestais em área de Cerrado: o caso da Serra da Canastra

Abstract

The Serra da Canastra is part of the Serra da Canastra National Park (SCNP), located in southwestern Minas Gerais, Brazil. The study area lies within the Cerrado biome, which is recognized as a system that coevolved with fire. However, transformations that occurred from the second half of the 20th century onward altered the natural fire regime, mainly due to increasing anthropogenic interference. In this context, and considering the ecological dependence on fire, the SCNP has adopted Integrated Fire Management since 2017. The main objective of this dissertation was to identify areas most susceptible to wildfires in the Serra da Canastra through the integration of geomorphological and meteorological factors, using a multicriteria analysis based on the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). The park area was classified into five fire risk levels, ranging from Very Low to Very High. The results indicate that the spatial distribution of risk classes varies significantly according to the different periods analyzed, highlighting the influence of climatic seasonality. Nevertheless, higher risk classes tend to be concentrated near roads and infrastructure, emphasizing the relevance of anthropogenic factors in fire dynamics. The overlay of fire hotspots showed that during the dry season the Moderate risk class concentrated the highest frequency of fire occurrences. Additionally, based on the susceptibility mapping and the integration with hotspot data, it was possible to analyze the severity of a fire scar using spectral indices, revealing marked spatial heterogeneity in fire impacts. Overall, the results underscore the importance of spatial fire risk modeling as a key tool to support planning and decision-making within Integrated Fire Management in the Serra da Canastra National Park.