Análise e simulação de tráfego urbano com dados municipais: um estudo de caso na região central de Uberlândia

Abstract

The growth of the vehicle fleet in Uberlândia has intensified urban congestion in the city's central region. To diagnose this problem and the resulting traffic propagation effect, this work develops an integrated methodology for urban traffic analysis and simulation using real data from the Municipal Transit Department. The approach combines exploratory analysis, Queuing Theory (Little's Law), Markov Chains, and Monte Carlo simulation of a road network. The results from analyzing 12 intersections revealed system saturation 41.7\% of the time during weekdays, with high congestion persistence. Concomitantly, the simulation validated the identified bottlenecks and their impacts on adjacent intersections, demonstrating that, although vehicle turnover (exit rate) is the dominant factor in operational efficiency, the physical capacity of the roadways represents the system's structural constraint. As a practical contribution, the methodology offers an accessible diagnostic tool for medium-sized Brazilian cities, providing a technical basis for urban mobility investment decisions.