Impacto da Reforma do Ensino Médio na Evasão Escolar em Minas Gerais: Uma Análise com Dados Municipais de 2017-2024

Abstract

This study examines whether the changes introduced by the 2022 High School Reform, including curricular adjustments and the flexibilization through pedagogical itineraries, affected school dropout rates in municipalities of Minas Gerais. Employing a difference-in-differences design with municipal and time fixed effects and a set of relevant educational controls, the analysis explores both aggregate and subgroup dynamics. Results reveal heterogeneous effects: at the aggregate level and within the public network there is a measurable average increase in dropout rates in upper secondary education. In contrast, a direct comparison between the ninth grade of basic schooling and the first year of high school yields a negative coefficient for the interaction of interest, indicating a slowdown in the growth of dropout at the transition between cycles. The average effect estimated for high school is 16% relative to the pre-reform mean, underscoring the need for complementary integrated policies and targeted retention measures to mitigate unintended consequences of the reform.