Comportamento temporal do índice de conforto térmico no município de Uberlândia - MG

Abstract

In recent decades, studies on thermal comfort have gained greater relevance in the scientific field by addressing important climate-related aspects. These studies have encouraged research focused on the adaptation of populations from different regions to climate change, in both outdoor and indoor environments, in the face of rising global temperatures. They often make use of indices such as the Temperature and Humidity Index (THI) to establish thermoneutral zones, that is, thermal comfort zones. This study aimed to analyze the temporal behavior of the Temperature and Humidity Index (THI), modeling its seasonality and trend components through the statistical methodology of time series. The variables considered were Minimum, Maximum, and Average THI, as well as the number of monthly hourly periods that exceeded the thermal comfort threshold, in the city of Uberlândia, Minas Gerais, from 2006 to 2023. The results indicated that, for the number of periods in thermal discomfort based on a THI threshold of 24, a SARIMA(1,0,1)(0,1,1)12 model with drift was adjusted, presenting seasonal components but no deterministic trend. These findings show that both the absolute THI values and the number of periods in discomfort present temporal dependence and that models accounting for seasonality and/or trend can be used to describe the temporal behavior of these variables and to make predictions for future scenarios, potentially contributing to urban planning and the quality of life of Uberlândia’s population.