Risco climático e instabilidade sistêmica no Brasil: uma análise pós-keynesiana

Abstract

This research investigates how climate risk converts into systemic risk to financial stability and analyzes the institutional arrangements necessary to mitigate this threat, with a descriptive focus on the Brazilian scenario. The methodology adopted consists of theoretical-normative research under the post-Keynesian framework, based on John Maynard Keynes's economics of uncertainty and Hyman Philip Minsky's Financial Instability Hypothesis, complemented by an empirical-descriptive characterization of Brazil's climate-financial landscape from 2008 to 2024. The theoretical analysis indicates that the market alone cannot price environmental degradation under radical uncertainty. In the absence of such pricing, the transmission channels of climate risk deteriorate balance sheets and create conditions to trigger a Climate Minsky Moment. The empirical characterization, exploratory in nature, indicates that the national productive model remains anchored in a carbon-intensive convention. It is observed that, despite the orthodox soundness of the National Financial System and the activism of the monetary authority, the regulatory arrangement operates without the proper climate lens, underestimating the already materialized physical shocks and the exposure to transition risks. It is argued that mitigating the risk of financial collapse tends to require shifting the focus from the socialization of risks to the socialization of sustainable investment. Future macroeconomic stability tends to depend on the resumption of institutional command by the State, integrating strategic planning, long-term financing provided by development banks (Big Government), and the stabilizing role of the central bank (Big Bank), consistent with the macroprudential policy consolidated after the 2008 crisis.