Guerra da Ucrânia (2022-): Dilema da segurança ou neorrevisionismo russo?

Abstract

This study aims to conduct a case study of the Ukraine War using the process-tracing methodology in order to evaluate and test two main hypotheses: the hypothesis that Russia displays a conservative nature in its actions during the Ukraine War, motivated by a security dilemma and grounded in John Mearsheimer’s structural realism theory; and the hypothesis that its actions are, in fact, driven by predatory motivations stemming from the revisionist policy adopted by Vladimir Putin. Through this approach, the study seeks to analyze how security dynamics, NATO expansion and Putin’s vision of Russia’s resurgence influenced his decisions. The research examines Russia’s political decisions and the reactions of other international actors, aiming to identify which theoretical framework better explains the phenomenon. By applying process-tracing, the study seeks to trace the sequence of events that led to the escalation of the conflict and to contribute to clarifying the motivations behind the war.