Crescimento de longo prazo e convergência na América Latina: evidências em painel a partir do modelo de Solow, 1950–2019

Abstract

This monograph analyzes the hypothesis of per capita income convergence in Latin America using the Solow model and its human-capital-augmented version as the theoretical framework. The study combines a theoretical review, a discussion of Latin American structural heterogeneity, and panel-data estimates that compare the regional dynamics with a global country sample. The empirical database draws on the Penn World Table and, in the augmented specifications, on the GGDC 10-Sector Database. The 휎-convergence analysis covers the dispersion of per capita GDP between 1950 and 2019, whereas the 훽-convergence regressions use annual panels starting in 1951 because initial income enters the models with a lag. The results show consistent evidence of 훽-convergence in the global sample, with negative and statistically significant coefficients for initial income. For Latin America, however, the evidence is weak and specification-sensitive: the absolute, Solow, and MRW models do not support robust regional convergence, and the favorable result in the augmented model depends on a much smaller subsample. The monograph concludes that Latin American growth is characterized by persistent structural heterogeneity, macroeconomic volatility, and limited systematic income catching-up across countries