Análise das apreensões de madeiras nativas em Minas Gerais

Abstract

The illegal exploitation of native woods represents one of the main pressures on Brazilian forest ecosystems, contributing to environmental degradation, biodiversity loss, and the impairment of ecosystem services. In Minas Gerais, a state that contains important remnants of native vegetation, the monitoring of forest product seizures constitutes a strategic tool to support environmental inspection actions and strengthen natural resource management. In this context, Chapter 1 of this dissertation presents the theoretical framework, justification, research objectives, and methodology for data collection and analysis, aimed at interpreting the spatio-temporal dynamics of native woods seizures in the state between 2019 and 2024, seeking to identify seasonal patterns, temporal trends, and priority areas of occurrence. Chapter 2 addresses the statistical analysis of seizures using 26,248 records provided by the State Secretariat for Environment and Sustainable Development (SEMAD). To this end, time series were developed to evaluate the behavior of seizures throughout the studied period, applying the Friedman and Scott-Knott tests to verify significant differences among groups and cluster similar ones, thereby enabling the identification of the influence of seasonality on the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model, in addition to modeling and future projections. Subsequently, Chapter 3 presents the spatial analysis of occurrences through Kernel Density Estimation (KDE), using georeferenced data processed in the QGIS software to identify hotspots and spatial concentration patterns of seizures. The results revealed well-defined spatio-temporal patterns in native woods seizures in Minas Gerais, with a higher incidence of violations during the dry season, especially between July and September. The SARIMA modeling proved to be suitable for representing the historical behavior of seizures and assisting in the projection of future trends. The spatial analysis using KDE revealed a persistent concentration of occurrences in the Jequitinhonha and Rio Doce Valley regions, associated with the availability of forest resources, logistical accessibility, and proximity to urban centers. It is concluded that the integration of time series and spatial analysis techniques constitutes an efficient approach to understanding the dynamics of illegal native woods exploitation, contributing to the strategic planning of environmental enforcement, optimization of resource allocation, and strengthening of evidence-based public policies.