Fundos de Investimento em Direitos Creditórios e a Hipótese da Instabilidade Financeira: Uma Análise durante a crise de 2020 e do Pós-crise no Brasil

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the effects of the 2020 crisis and the post-crisis period on Credit Receivables Investment Funds (FIDCs), highlighting the heterogeneous behavior of each segment classified by ANBIMA. The research is grounded in Hyman Minsky’s Financial Instability Hypothesis, which interprets the transition from hedge positions to speculative and ponzi positions in contexts of macroeconomic shocks. The methodology combines a theoretical review with an empirical analysis based on data from CVM, IBGE, and the Central Bank of Brazil, considering historical series of delinquency, profitability, and credit receivables volume, all deflated by inflation indices. The results reveal that the 2020 crisis acted as a trigger of fragility with asymmetric effects: Agro FIDCs moved closer to speculative positions and showed greater vulnerability; Fomento FIDCs maintained relative resilience supported by short-term receivables; Financial FIDCs experienced recovery in the post-crisis period driven by household consumption and public policies; while the group classified as Others remained volatile, albeit with signs of stabilization. From a Minskyan perspective, the FIDC industry in Brazil mirrors the logic of financial instability, in which apparent stability gives way to fragility during critical periods. In this context, the study emphasizes the importance of incentives for diversification, improved monitoring, and stronger regulatory frameworks in order to enhance the resilience of the sector against future crises.