Determinantes da crise econômica causada pela pandemia da Covid-19: uma abordagem bayesiana

Abstract

The objective of this work is to observe the role of macroeconomic, financial, political, institutional, health characteristics, and of economic and health policy responses to the incidence of the economic crisis caused by the covid-19 pandemic. The empirical analysis will be carried out for a sample of 100 countries for the year 2020. The econometric methodology used is the Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) with Monte Carlo algorithm via Markov Chains. The work contributes to the literature in two dimensions: i) The Bayesian Model Averaging is used to deal with the problem of uncertainty regarding the set of explanatory variables in crisis incidence models; ii) In addition, a sample of 100 countries and a set of 28 variables that corroborate the understanding of the economic crisis caused by the covid-19 pandemic are used. Empirical results in terms of GDP decline indicate that the crisis was more severe in countries with a higher percentage of tourism in GDP; in countries that have adopted more stringent containment measures, and in countries with higher mortality rates caused by SARS-COV-2. The work consists of five chapters. In chapter 2, a review of the theoretical literature on economic crises and the crisis caused by the pandemic is carried out. Chapter 3 presents the global scenario in 2020 and the possible determinants of the heterogeneous incidence of the crisis. Finally, in chapter 4, the empirical literature on economic crises is presented, the methodology used and the empirical results found.