Proposta para mapeamento dos riscos de queimadas e incêndios em Minas Gerais

Abstract

From 2002 to 2016, approximately 423 million hectares of the Earth's surface burned annually. However, there are four factors that should associate the annual increase in the number of records with burned and burned areas: i) human activities; ii) characteristic of the combustible material; iii) fire management activities; iv) changes in land use and climate. In this sense, this becomes one of the main topics to be discussed, being little or insufficiently addressed in specific territories, such as the state of Minas Gerais. The result of this is the effects observed in longer fire seasons, size of areas, climate impacts, occurrence of fires in areas where they did not occur in the past, and which can become much worse when not prevented or controlled. Focusing on Minas Gerais, as it is the state with the highest number of fire occurrences in the Southeast Region of Brazil, the main objective was to analyze the risk of burning and fires throughout the Minas Gerais territory, using the analytical decision model Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), from 2017 to 2021. The specific objectives were: a) to investigate the progress of Brazilian and Minas Gerais legislation regarding the use of fire and its consequences; b) identify the spatial dynamics of hot spots, aiming to determine the distribution patterns of fires and burnings; and c) identify the physical, climatic and anthropogenic variables that may be favorable to the ignition or spread of fire incidents, to obtain the fire and burning risk map. The hypothesis of this work is that multi-criteria analysis can be used to map the risks of fires and fires. To test this hypothesis, physical, climatic and anthropogenic variables that possibly interfere with the fire regime were chosen. The collection of vector information on fire and burning outbreaks was carried out using the Queimadas Program database, made available by the National Institute for Space Research (INPE). Climate information on temperature and precipitation was acquired from the Weather Forecasting and Climate Studies Center (CPTEC)/INPE; the demographic data of the Minas Gerais municipalities were obtained from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) database; land use and cover data were obtained from Mapbiomas; and slope, slope orientation and altitude were generated using data from the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM). The results indicate that the regions of occurrence for the very high risk class interval in relation to the risk of fires and burning are distributed, mainly in the mesoregions of Vale do Rio Doce, Vale do Mucuri and Zona da Mata. These regions are strongly influenced by precipitation, temperature, land use, where there is a predominance of pasture, altitude and the location of highways. However, they had the lowest number of fires and burnings recorded, this can be explained by the territorial extension, which are relatively smaller when compared to the North mesoregions and the Triângulo Mineiro and Alto Paranaíba, which are the largest in territorial extension and number of outbreak incidences. . The results obtained both in the analysis of the AHP method and in the comparison with the fires and fires detected by INPE, validate the methodology used and the fire risk maps.