Distribuição de onça-pintada no Brasil: integrando aspectos da paisagem e dinâmica populacional para predizer áreas de adequabilidade ambiental

Abstract

Assessments on distribution and environmental suitability for large and wide-ranging carnivores became a global demand as an important tool to evaluate minimum ecological requirements and the impacts of critical anthropogenic factors on species’ occurrence. However, predictive models often fall short in representing the reality of the observed patterns in the landscape. In this regard, we developed dynamic models of jaguar’s geographic distribution in Brazil, integrating the synergistic effects of environmental suitability requirements and current habitat loss, as well as aspects of population dynamics on a broader scale. Additionally, we aimed to understand how environmental suitability and different vegetation cover thresholds affect landscape connectivity for this species, being able to predict jaguar range shifts as a proxy for its vulnerability at the scale of landscape fragments. Our results highlight the loss of suitable areas across all biomes, especially for Cerrado, Amazon-Cerrado ecotone, and Pantanal. We conclude that landscape connectivity is highly sensitive to the thresholds used to identify suitable areas and recommend the urgent need of conducting more sensitivity analyses, such as the one introduced here, to provide accurate information capable of subordinating the prioritization and management in crucial areas for jaguar persistence.