Exportações de recursos naturais e crescimento econômico: uma análise com dados em painel

Abstract

In the last three decades, the world has experienced significant increases in production and exports of primary products, driven by the increase in international demand, thanks to the growth of emerging economies and developed countries. However, some authors point to a possible inverse relationship between endowment/abundance of natural resources and economic growth, called the Natural Resources Curse. In this sense, the present work sought to contribute by quantifying the impacts of the dependence on exports of total and disaggregated natural resources in fossil products and natural gas, minerals and metals, and agricultural products in the economic growth of 88 selected countries. Thus, the present work sought to answer whether the type of country (developed or developing) impacts economic growth, given the dependence on the export of natural resources. To estimate the economic growth model, the period covered was from 1990 to 2018, and based on panel data, we used the methodology of the GMM System. The results indicated that there is evidence of a Curse of Natural Resources due to the dependence on exports of total primary products, however, the evidence differs according to the type of product exported, being observed more effectively in exports of fossils and natural gas. However, the negative effects can be mitigated by some transmission channels, such as stimulating the investment rate, the positive relation of terms of trade and the control of internal prices. Finally, it was also signaled by the evidence obtained that economic growth is negatively affected in developing countries that depend on exports from these segments.