Quanto mais complexas as economias, menor a inflação? uma análise empírica com modelos ARDL em painel

Abstract

This dissertation investigates the relationship between economic complexity and inflation. The hypothesis is that the greater the complexity of an economy, the lower must be inflation, since complexity is an expression of productivity and the higher it is, the more behaved are the prices. The study is based on a sample of 48 countries between the years 2002 to 2018, whose analysis also divides them into subgroups of Developed and Undeveloped economies. As a strategy for making inference, the study develops some models based on the literature, verifying the existence of a long-run relationship between the variables in order to present the main results of the chosen ARDL/PMG approach and causality tests. The results of the applied methodology show that such a negative relationship exists between economic complexity and inflation, mainly for the developed countries subgroup. This means that inflation is not always and not everywhere an exclusively monetary phenomenon, but it also depends on the institutional structures that provide a complex productive system capable of constantly increase its productivity and reduce the price increase dynamics.