Hipótese upstream-downstream: uma análise internacional e regional dos efeitos da expansão dos negócios no nível de endividamento das empresas

Abstract

The first article points out as a gap the neglect of financial entry modes in the Upstream-Downstream Hypothesis, specifically the interaction of operational and financial internationalization. Thus, the study analyzes as the main objective the effect of the operational internationalization and the financial internationalization on the behavior of the (total, short and long terms) leverage, and as a specific objective investigates the effect of operational and financial internationalization on systematic risk behavior of the Brazilian firms listed on B3 Stock Exchange in the period from 2010 to 2018. The work used a multidimensional method to measure the degree of internationalization. As operational internationalization proxy was used the degree of internationalization and as a financial internationalization proxy was used the emission of American Depositary Receipts. Financial data were collected from Economatica, while the degree of internationalization and emission of American Depositary Receipts data were collected manually on the Dom Cabral Foundation and Securities and Exchange Commission website. Were used regression models estimated with the pooled method for the systematic risk, and with panel data adopting random effects for the leverage models. Due to the statistical insignificance in the results, the Upstream-Downstream Hypothesis has not been able to be validated for Brazilian firms that use simultaneously the operational and financial internationalization strategies. Thus, the main contribution of this research was to analyze the effects on the systematic risk and on the level of leverage of the companies that are internationalized simultaneously, both operationally and financially. Besides, the essay contributes to the development of studies in the area by considering in the Upstream-Downstream Hypothesis model the variable of financial internationalization and its interaction with the degree of internationalization. The second article is the first empirical research both nationally and internationally that tried to adapt the Upstream-Downstream Hypothesis in a regional dimension, considering the business expansion of companies between cities within the same country, arguing that regional expansion strategies bring different levels of risk to the companies. Assuming that the Upstream-Downstream Hypothesis is based on the variation in risk levels depending on the country of origin and destination of internationalization, we tried to adapt the Upstream-Downstream Hypothesis to the regional level to try to explain the leverage level of firms that choose to a context of the regional expansion of its businesses and test whether the assumptions of the Hypothesis remain valid for the Brazilian regional context. Thus, the work investigates from the Upstream-Downstream Hypothesis the effects of the national expansion on the leverage (short, long, and total terms) of the Brazilian firms listed on B3 Stock Exchange in the year 2019. The work used institutional and macroeconomic variables of the cities for the creation of the regional expansion variable to test whether the assumptions of the hypothesis remain valid for the Brazilian regional context. Financial data were collected from Economatica, while the information regarding the cities of the headquarters and subsidiaries of the firms, as well as the institutional and macroeconomic variables of the cities, were collected through the manual collection on the websites TradeMap and IBGE Cities. Was used factorial analysis to assist in the generation of the regional expansion variable and subsequently was used a linear regression model estimated by the Ordinary Least Squares method (OLS). The Hypothesis Upstream-Downstream was partially validated for the Brazilian regional context, as the results indicated that companies that expand their business from a more developed city to a less developed one tend to decrease their debt levels in the short, long, and total terms according to the downstream effect. Thus, this study contributes to the advancement of the Upstream-Downstream Hypothesis by adapting it for regional analysis, with the creation of risk metrics to identify the direction of the regional expansion (upstream/downstream) of Brazilian cities and corroborating the downstream effect in the Brazilian regional context.