Uma investigação dos determinantes do padrão de especialização comercial brasileiro no período 2000-2019

Abstract

The study aims to identify the determinants of the increase of the share of the exported value of commodities in comparison to the total value exported by Brazil in the period 2000-2019. It contributes to the literature of international trades by innovating in the treatment of the commercial specialization issue, using a relatively new econometric methodology, an updated time frame and evaluating the importance of selected economic variables for the composition of brazilian´s exports. Through three co-integrated ARDL models, the following results were pointed out: with positive coefficients, chinese income, China's participation in the brazillian´s exports and the commodity price index and, with negative coefficients, the effective real exchange rate (R$/ foreign currency) and the market share of Brazilian manufactured products had a long-term relationship with the dependent variable - which is a measure of trade specialization in commodities - at least in one of the three models presented. The result indicates that, depending on how the econometric model were specified, these variables may be the main causes of the deepening of Brazilian regressive specialization. The results corroborates with the results of export models that comprised the empirical referencing of this study.