Uma análise quantitativa das relações bilaterais do Brasil diante dos três grandes parceiros estratégicos: EUA, China e Argentina, sob a ótica das votações na AGNU, entre 1997 a 2014

Abstract

This work sought to determine factors that impact Brazilian foreign policy decisions, based on the degree of convergence in the votes of the UN General Assembly, taking as reference Brazil's bilateral relations with three major strategic partners: Argentina, China and the United States . For that, quantitative analysis was used, working with the tobit model as the main test, but also with multiple regressions and graphic evaluations to support the validation of the conclusions. It is worth mentioning that, for the empirical analysis above, it was used as dependent variable: the convergence index in the AGNU votes between Brasília and each ally, and as explanatory or independent variables were used, exports, imports, foreign direct investments received by the Brazilian State and the difference in power between the partners, called the power gap. It was also verified, in a graphical evaluation at the end, if the use of a domestic variable of the party ideology type would have any relevance in a greater or lesser agreement, between the countries studied, during the voting in the UNGA. The results were very interesting, in which it was noted that the neoliberal variables, in this case those related to the trade flow, had great statistical relevance in the Sino-Brazilian relationship, while in the analysis of the alliance with the USA, the neo-realist variable, Power gap, was the one that have demonstrated good significance in the empirical model that was used. Regarding the domestic variable: the party ideology, an interesting correlation can be observed in international policy decisions. Finally, it was observed that the present research obtained significant conclusions, which can contribute to the actually growing field of debate of empirical brazilian foreign policy.analysis.