Impactos da globalização sobre a inflação: análise de painel (1996-2013)

Abstract

The faster advances in globalization and its distinct impacts in terms of changes in distribution and organization of the productive and commercial process in global terms, increasing financial flows, widespread of knowledge and technology has been a focus of analysis of an increasing number of studies. This work seeks to evaluate possible impacts of globalization on inflation for a set of advanced, emerging and developing countries for the period of 1996 to 2013. In order to do this, it considers a set of indicators proposed by Dreher (2006) to measure globalization and evaluate its impact on inflation. The empirical analysis used panel data models estimated by fixed effects (OLS) or random effects (GLS) and a dynamic panel model (System GMM). The results suggest that globalization, evaluated by the more general measure and by its economic and social dimensions has a negative and statistically significant impact on inflation, indicating that for this set of countries and time period, a higher (lower) level of globalization is associated to lower (higher) levels of inflation. On the other hand, the political measure of globalization is not statistically significant in the inflation models.