O desempenho das exportações em economias emergentes selecionadas (2000-2010): considerações sobre os impactos recentes da crise financeira internacional

Abstract

The goal of this dissertation is to investigate empirically the export performance for a selected set of emerging economies (Argentina, Brazil, Chile, China, India e Mexico) for the period of 2000 Q1 until 2010 Q2. It also analyzes possible impacts of the international financial crisis of 2008 on the export performance for these countries. In order to fulfill this goal the work estimates a Vector Error Correction Model (VEC) using data for exports, real effective exchange rate and two proxies for external income (world import demand and US real GDP). Based on the estimated long run and short run coefficients we were able to link the export performance for the selected countries with possible impacts of the international financial crisis of 2008. The estimated results indicate that in the long run an increase (decrease) in the world import demand or in the US Real GDP foster (mitigate) exports for all countries. The estimated results for the short run suggest that changes in the real effective exchange rate foster the exports for China; changes in the world import demand contributes to the short run exports adjustment for China and India; and that changes in the US Real GDP has favored the short run exports adjustment for the Chilean and Indian economies.