Desindustrialização: causas e efeitos na economia brasileira

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the deindustrialization process in the Brazilian economy, investigating its main causes, effects, and the nature of its occurrence. Through a literature review, the study contrasts the concept of natural deindustrialization, typical of developed countries, with the premature deindustrialization observed in Brazil. The research explores the theoretical debate among different perspectives, including the orthodox view, heterodox approaches, and the Dutch Disease perspective. Additionally, an empirical analysis of macroeconomic indicators is conducted, including the manufacturing industry's share of the GDP, the evolution of formal sectoral employment, Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF), and trade balance dynamics. The results show a severe structural regression, marked by the premature transfer of the workforce to the service sector, the reprimarization of exports, and a high dependence on manufactured imports, which reflects the weakening of internal productive linkages. It concludes that reversing this scenario, which compromises long-term growth, requires the formulation of coordinated industrial and macroeconomic policies aimed at recovering competitiveness.