É o fim da era dólar? Nuances e complexidades das assimetrias financeiras internacionais contemporâneas

Abstract

This monograph investigates the contemporary dynamics of the international monetary system, seeking to determine whether the transformations observed over the last decades signal a process of global de-dollarization or merely represent portfolio diversification within an order still dominated by the U.S. dollar. Grounded in the concepts of monetary sovereignty, financial asymmetries, and currency hierarchy, the study adopts a hypothetico-deductive method and a qualitative approach, combining bibliographic review, documentary analysis, and the examination of historical data covering the period from 1985 to 2025. The findings suggest that, despite the relative decline of the dollar's share in global reserves and the renewed importance of gold as a safe-haven asset, the underlying hierarchical structure of the international monetary system remains largely unchanged. The analysis also highlights the persistence of the mechanisms associated with the so-called exorbitant privilege, allowing the United States to sustain persistent external deficits under favorable financing conditions. It is concluded that the transformations observed pointless to a replacement of the existing international monetary order and more to a gradual adaptation of the system in a context marked by increasing geopolitical fragmentation and the pursuit of greater financial autonomy by states. Although the current evidence confirms the continued predominance of the U.S. dollar, the continuation of these trends may, in the long term, reshape the global currency hierarchy.