Fundos de Venture Capital & Private Equity no cenário brasileiro de startups de 2020 a 2025

Abstract

This study evaluates the performance of Venture Capital (VC) and Private Equity (PE) funds within the Brazilian startup ecosystem between 2020 and 2025. The selected timeframe encompasses a full cycle consisting of accelerated expansion, severe correction, and market stabilization. Methodologically, a hypothetical-deductive approach is adopted, establishing a qualitative-descriptive research with quantitative elements. The analysis relies on secondary data consolidated by governmental and sector organizations, utilizing the Internal Rate of Return (IRR) and Multiple on Invested Capital (MoIC) as core metrics, supplemented by a case study of the Headline XP VC 3 fund. These results reveal that a strong influx of global capital combined with an initial drop in the Selic interest rate in 2020 inflated valuations and drove the rise of unicorns. However, the macroeconomic reversal starting in 2022 triggered a severe price correction, a decline in capital efficiency, and the complete closure of the initial public offering (IPO) window, turning mergers and acquisitions (M&A) and the secondary market into the primary exit routes. Additionally, the study highlights the chronic impact of exchange rate volatility, which eroded foreign currency returns in the majority of transactions. In this environment, manager competence manifested as a significant performance dispersion of thirty percentage points between the top and bottom quartiles of funds. The study concludes that the Brazilian ecosystem emerged from this cycle institutionally more mature and selective, where contractual governance mechanisms and the direct involvement of operating partners became crucial for risk mitigation and real value creation.