Estrutura e desempenho: a dinâmica da indústria de transformação em função dos gastos das famílias, à luz da teoria kaleckiana (2007-2023)

Abstract

This study analyzes the relationship between the performance of the Brazilian manufacturing industry and the dynamics of household income between 2007 and 2023, based on Michal Kalecki’s theoretical framework. The analysis employs key variables such as the Value of Industrial Transformation (VTI), the real minimum wage, household credit, fixed capital investment, personnel expenditures in manufacturing, and the level of capacity utilization. The central hypothesis argues that, in underdeveloped economies, increases in household income constitute a necessary but insufficient condition for sustained industrial dynamism due to structural supply constraints, institutional limitations, and distributive conflicts. The findings indicate that the growth cycle observed between 2007 and 2014 was associated with the expansion of credit, minimum wage appreciation, and stronger state participation in long-term financing, particularly through BNDES operations. However, from 2015 onward, the retrenchment of income policies, fiscal austerity measures, and the increase in long-term credit costs weakened the sustainability of private investment. The results also show that even during periods of income expansion, inflationary pressures on non-durable goods and structural bottlenecks limited the consolidation of a virtuous cycle between domestic demand and industrial production. The Brazilian experience confirms Kalecki’s argument that development constraints are primarily political and institutional in nature, requiring coordinated policies that integrate long-term investment, income distribution, and structural transformation.