Efeitos da privatização por capitalização no desempenho econômico-financeiro da Eletrobras

Abstract

This study analyzes the effects of Eletrobras S.A.’s privatization, implemented through a capitalization process and dilution of the Federal Government’s ownership stake in 2022, on indicators of investment, profitability, and financial structure. The research adopts a quantitative, longitudinal approach using quarterly data from 2015 to 2026. Descriptive statistics, comparative tests, and interrupted time series regressions were employed to assess changes associated with the transition from state control to a dispersed ownership structure. The results indicate immediate and statistically significant increases in Capital Expenditures (CAPEX) (β₂ = 46.95 billion; p < 0.001), Investment Intensity (β₂ = 0.167; p < 0.001), and Investment per Installed Capacity (β₂ = 1,109,030.55; p < 0.001), followed by a reduction in the growth trajectory of these indicators in subsequent periods. Regarding profitability, no statistically significant effects were identified for Return on Assets (ROA), Return on Equity (ROE), or EBITDA Margin. In the financial structure dimension, the main effect was observed in debt composition (β₂ = -0.0619; p < 0.001), indicating a lower relative participation of short-term obligations in total indebtedness, while no significant changes were found in financial leverage or current liquidity. The findings indicate that the change in ownership structure was associated primarily with investment allocation and financing decisions rather than with immediate changes in profitability. The results also highlight the importance of considering investment cycles and the temporal dynamics of infrastructure-intensive industries when assessing privatization outcomes. In the case of Eletrobras/Axia Energia, the evidence suggests that the effects of ownership transition are not uniformly reflected across different dimensions of economic and financial performance.