Indicadores socioeconômico-financeiros como red flags de risco de insolvência em Operadoras de Planos de Saúde

Abstract

Predicting insolvency represents a critical challenge for the stability of Brazil's supplementary healthcare system. Health plan operators (HPOs) face increasing financial, demographic, and regulatory pressures, reinforcing the need for early warning systems capable of identifying insolvency risk signals (red flags). This study aims to analyze socioeconomic and financial indicators that contribute as warning signals (red flags) to identifying insolvency risks in Brazilian health plan operators. The theoretical framework is grounded in Signaling Theory, which is used to discuss indicators as early signals for insolvency detection. The study covers the period from 2007 to 2024, using financial indicators and non-financial information provided by the National Supplementary Health Agency (ANS), complemented by macroeconomic variables. The methodological approach combines the Elastic Net technique for indicator selection with logistic regression for econometric validation, considering eight types of health plan operators separately and two time horizons preceding insolvency (t-1 and t-2). The results identified financial, non-financial, and macroeconomic red flags associated with insolvency risk, with convergences and divergences between the expected economic signs and the empirical results depending on the type of health plan operator and the time horizon analyzed. Among the 95 distinct indicators identified, 33 showed greater temporal persistence and recurrence across operator types, revealing a set of more consistent signals associated with insolvency risk among Brazilian health plan operators. The study contributes to the insolvency literature and to the application of Signaling Theory by highlighting the multidimensional and contextual nature of signals associated with insolvency risk, while also providing potential insights for the prudential monitoring of health plan operators. The findings reinforce the importance of jointly considering different dimensions of signals, as well as operator-specific characteristics and time horizons, when assessing insolvency risk among health plan operators.