Performance ESG, emissão de carbono e dividendos: uma análise comparativa entre países emergentes, Brasil e suas regiões

Abstract

Context: Recently, issues related to sustainability, especially climate change, have taken center stage in debates among companies, investors, and regulators, even influencing financial policies such as dividend policies. Șerban et al. (2022) and Shu and Tan (2023) highlight that ESG indicators have become established as a standard metric for evaluating corporate sustainability, strengthening business resilience and attracting investors. Complementarily, Nirino et al. (2021) associate sustainability with strategic investment, financing, and dividend distribution decisions. However, empirical results are divergent. Benlemlih (2019), Verga Matos et al. (2020), and Bilyay Erdogan et al. (2023) identify a positive relationship between better ESG practices and higher, more stable dividends, while Niccolò et al. (2020) suggest that such practices may reduce free cash flow and limit profit distribution. Regarding carbon emissions, Balachandran and Nguyen (2018) point out that more polluting companies tend to pay lower dividends, while Mazzarano et al. (2024) find a positive relationship, indicating a demand for higher returns from investors in the face of climate risk. In this context, Brazil is treated as a representative case of an emerging economy, marked by strong regional heterogeneity, which reinforces the importance of analyzing regionality as an institutional moderator of corporate behavior. Objective: The objective is to investigate the relationship between ESG (Environmental, Social and Governance) practices, carbon emissions, and the dividend distribution policy of Brazilian firms and firms from emerging countries. Method: The ProKnow-C Knowledge Development Process Constructivist methodological process was adopted. The study was structured in two sample segments, one Brazilian and the other from emerging countries, with data from the Eikon Refinitiv® database for the period from 2010 to 2024. The Brazilian sample comprised 342 firms listed on the B3, distributed across the country's five macro-regions. In the international phase, 23,405 observations from 26 emerging countries were analyzed. Regressions were estimated using Tobit and Logit techniques in Stata® software, with additional application of the Firth Logit as a robustness test. Results: The results indicate that, in Brazil and emerging countries, dividend policy is mainly explained by economic and financial factors, while ESG and CO₂ emissions exert a secondary influence. Regarding Hypothesis H1, General ESG and the Environmental pillar H1a mainly affect the amount distributed; the Social pillar H1b impacts both the decision and the volume; and Governance H1c had a negative effect on the probability of payment. Regarding Hypothesis H2, total emissions do not directly influence dividends in Brazil (H2 and H2a rejected), but Scope 2 emissions (H2b) and Scope 3 emissions (H2c) showed a positive effect, with H2b partially confirmed and H2c confirmed. Hypotheses H3 and H4 were partially confirmed, showing a greater propensity and intensity of payment in the South and Southeast, while the Northeast showed less distributive capacity. In emerging markets, Hypothesis H5 was partially confirmed, indicating that ESG increases the volume distributed but reduces the probability of payment. Hypothesis H6 demonstrated that the effect of emissions varies according to the region, increasing dividends in Asia and Central America and reducing the probability of payment in Europe and Africa. In summary, the relationship between ESG and dividends is complex and conditioned by regionality, which acts as a central moderator in Brazil and emerging markets. Research Alignment with the PPGAdm's Area of Concentration (Regionality and Management) and Research Line: This research aligns with the PPGAdm's area of concentration in Regionality and Management by addressing structural inequalities between Brazilian regions and institutional differences that influence corporate behavior. By examining the relationship between ESG practices, CO₂ emissions, and dividend policy, it highlights how regional factors, such as sectoral structure, institutional maturity, regulation, and the weight of agribusiness, condition corporate decisions. By extending the analysis to emerging countries, the study reinforces this alignment by comparing different regional and institutional contexts, showing how management adapts to local and global specificities. Impact and innovative character in intellectual production: The research contributes by integrating, in a structured way, three dimensions that are often analyzed in isolation: ESG, carbon emissions, and dividend policy, focusing on Brazil and emerging markets. By engaging with Agency Theory, Pecking Order, Signaling, Stakeholders, Legitimacy, and Disclosure Theory, it broadens the understanding of the influence of environmental and non-financial factors on corporate decisions. In the theoretical field, it relates ESG and emissions to agency costs, positions dividends as a possible mechanism for mitigating conflicts, and incorporates carbon policy into financial analysis, especially in the Brazilian regulatory context. Its innovative character lies in treating carbon emissions as a financial determinant capable of impacting cash retention, capital structure, and shareholder remuneration, expanding the scope of traditional financial theory. Economic, social, and regional impact: The study generates economic, social, and regional impacts with relevant practical applications. On the economic level, by demonstrating how ESG practices and CO₂ emissions influence dividend intensity, it provides support for investment decisions and distribution policies that are more aligned with sustainability. In the social sphere, it identifies which ESG dimensions affect dividend policy, strengthening transparency and corporate responsibility. From a regional perspective, by highlighting inequalities between Brazilian regions and emerging countries, it contributes to public policies and business strategies adapted to local realities. As outcomes, technical reports, corporate communications, comparative tools, and consulting services in governance and sustainability stand out. Regional implications: As a regional implication, the study directly engages with the area of influence of UFU, especially in the Triângulo Mineiro and Alto Paranaíba regions. By analyzing the relationship between ESG practices, CO₂ emissions, and dividend policy, it contributes to understanding how sustainability and governance factors affect companies in strategic sectors of the region, such as agribusiness, industry, and services. In this way, the research reinforces UFU's role as an agent of socioeconomic development, by bringing academic production closer to the demands of local organizations and consolidating regionality as a central axis of analysis and a competitive advantage for the region. Sustainable Development Goals addressed in the research: In light of the UN's 2030 Agenda, the study engages with different Sustainable Development Goals. It contributes to SDG 7 by highlighting Brazil's potential in renewable energies and its capacity to attract sustainable investments; to SDG 8 by relating sustainability and dividends, encouraging practices that reconcile financial return and social impact; and to SDG 9 by stimulating improvements in governance, transparency, and corporate innovation. It also aligns with SDG 12 by associating ESG practices and carbon emissions with efficient capital allocation and corporate responsibility. SDG 13 constitutes the central axis of the research, highlighting how climate risks influence financial decisions and how carbon policies can mitigate them. Finally, it contributes to SDG 17 by integrating companies, investors, and regulators in promoting more sustainable markets.