Análise dos preços médios de combustíveis em Uberlândia-MG e previsão da gasolina via modelos de séries temporais

Abstract

This study aimed to analyze the weekly average fuel prices (Diesel S10, Ethanol, and Gasoline) in Uberlândia, MG, from July 2021 to December 2024, using time series models to forecast future prices of Ipiranga-branded Gasoline. Data gaps were initially addressed through seasonal imputation techniques, followed by descriptive and comparative analyses across different fuel brands. The series exhibiting intermediate variability was selected for modeling, and statistical tests were conducted to assess trends and seasonality. The SARIMA model was fitted based on the lowest AIC, BIC, RMSE, and MAPE values. The results revealed price stability and reduced volatility in 2024. This study contributes to a better understanding of fuel market dynamics and offers valuable insights to support decision-making by consumers, businesses, and policymakers.