Política econômica e oferta de crédito por bancos públicos e privados: uma análise da atuação contracíclica brasileira (2000-2024)

Abstract

The central objective of this article is to analyze the evolution of credit operations within the Brazilian National Financial System (SFN) from 2000 to 2024, in relation to the dynamics of the Brazilian economy. The research problem concerns the relevance of the countercyclical role of credit through public banks in scenarios of recession and economic instability, as well as the conditions that enable the adoption of this strategy. To this end, a Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model was employed with quarterly data from 2012 to 2024, encompassing variables such as GDP growth, default rate, banking spread, and credit volume, using data from the Central Bank of Brazil, IBGE, and IPEA. The results indicate that the supply of credit by public institutions is mainly determined by internal factors, directly influenced by the government, and that the intensity of their countercyclical role largely depends on the prevailing economic policy orientation, whether heterodox or orthodox. In contrast, in the case of private banks, macroeconomic variables exert a decisive influence: GDP growth fosters credit expansion, while rising default rates and banking spreads restrict lending. The study concludes that public credit policy has the potential to mitigate recessionary cycles, but its effectiveness is conditioned by political choices, whereas private credit proves more sensitive to market fundamentals. This research contributes to the debate on the role of credit as an instrument of stabilization and economic growth in Brazil.