Vieses de comportamento: Uma análise sob a perspectiva dos tomadores de decisão da agropecuária brasileira

Abstract

The intuitive system is an important element in the decision-making process in the agricultural field, and discussions on this subject have not yet been concluded. In addition, personal characteristics and particularities of the rural environment influence this system, resulting in different actions being taken by the individual on the farm. Based on this context, the aim of this thesis is to analyze which personal and environmental characteristics affect behavioral biases from the perspective of decision-makers working in Brazilian agriculture. To answer the proposed thesis, a literature review was carried out to identify the most recurrent behavioral biases: overconfidence; herd effect; risk and loss aversion; optimism/pessimism and the status quo. After identification, a data collection instrument was drawn up which looked for variables linked to personal and environmental characteristics among the respondents and their relationship with the biases investigated. After surveying 101 decision-makers in the agricultural sector, a questionnaire was applied with questions adapted from the literature and contextualized to the rural environment. The data was analyzed using binomial logistic regression and supported by behavioral theories, especially prospect theory. The results show the presence of overconfidence in 65.3% of the sample, risk and loss aversion in 57.4%, optimism in 59.4% and status quo in 52.5%. With regard to the herd effect, the results show that only 20.8% presented this bias, which indicates low evidence. Personal characteristics were not significant for the herd effect, risk and loss aversion, optimism and status quo biases. On the other hand, characteristics correlated with the production environment proved to be significant and can lead to overconfident decisions. These findings point to the variables related to the (farming) activity carried out and the family organization. For the herd effect, the environmental characteristic related to the activity carried out also showed significance and an odds ratio of provoking decisions with third-party interference. The ownership size factor (wealth) was significant in causing intuitive decisions from the perspective of risk aversion and loss bias. As for optimism, only the variable linked to the family environment was significant in influencing decisions towards this bias. In intuitive decisions loaded with status quo, the findings showed that only the professional performance variable was significant.