Condicionantes macroeconômicos dos preços imobiliários no Brasil e suas capitais

Abstract

The central objetive of this monograph isso to evaluate the dynamics of movement in residential property prices in Brazil and in the main capitals in the Center – West, Northeast, Southeast and South, aiming to elucidate the main source of macroeconomic influence on price movements; as well as evaluating whether this movement occurs differently between the capitals Fortaleza – CE, Goiânia – GO, Rio de Janeiro – RJ, Salvador – BA and São Paulo – SP, taking into account their economically attractive specificities. To this end, data were collected between December 2013 and December 2023, referring to the main price variables and explanatory variables, based on the most recent literature in the sector that would tend to better explain the price dynamics, namely: IBC – Br, IPCA, Directed Credit, Terms of Exchange and Basic Unit Cost. Then, the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) was used applied to multiple linear regression of time series, achieving the estimation of parameters that point to two most significant variables in the 7 estimated models. Directed Credit and Terms of Exchange were the main drivers of prices in the sector, with special emphasis on the credit rate directed to real estate financing, which in addition to having a greater effect on the price, putting pressure on agents' decisions in relation to purchase and sale, and interfering in the supply and demand for properties; tends to be directly influenced by other macroeconomic conditions in Brazil, a situation of potential leverage of its influence on price variability in the real estate sector.