Fatores climáticos e os custos de produção do milho: um estudo nas principais regiões produtoras brasileiras

Abstract

The present study sought to understand the relationships between corn production costs and climatic factors in the main producing regions of Brazil. The methodological choice was supported by descriptive, documentary and bibliographical research premises. The research focused on the analysis of the 1st and 2nd corn harvest. Cost data was collected from the National Supply Company (Conab), and climate data from the National Meteorology Institute (INMET). The inclusion criteria involved municipalities that presented data available on the Conab platform from 2013 to 2022. Data collection covered variables related to variable costs (Machine operations, Labor, Seeds, Fertilizers and Pesticides), and fixed costs (Depreciation, Periodic maintenance of improvements/facilities and Social Charges). JAMOVI software was adopted to process statistical data: descriptive analysis, simple linear correlation analysis and multiple linear regression. It was observed, during the analyses, that, in both harvests, the costs associated with fertilizers, seeds and pesticides represented the most expensive elements in the composition of the production cost. The study revealed divergences in the behavior of costs in relation to climatic factors between regions in regression analyses. In the North Region, the presence of a statistical association between all climate variables and costs related to the operation of machinery, labor, fertilizers, pesticides and social charges stands out. In the Northeast Region, all cost variables showed associations with variations, showing increases and reductions in response to changes in climatic conditions. However, in the Central-West Region, some variables, such as labor, seeds and fertilizers, did not show significant associations with climate variables, just as relative humidity did not demonstrate a relationship with costs in this specific region. In the Southeast Region, no statistical association was observed, while in the South Region, most variables revealed associations, except the cost of maintaining improvements/facilities. These findings highlight the complex interaction between climatic factors and costs in corn production, exposing variations in this relationship across regions. Therefore, the research findings contribute to a more in-depth understanding of the interactions between corn production costs and climatic factors, taking into account different regions and harvests.