Uma análise da vulnerabilidade financeira dos países periféricos em tempos de crise: o caso da Turquia

Abstract

The economic and financial vulnerability of peripheral countries results from the persistent asymmetry in the international monetary and financial system, exacerbated by the liberalization of capital flow movements since the 1980s. This financial opening facilitated the inflow of capital in times of prosperity but also its outflow during periods of economic stress, leading to increased volatility in capital flows, analyzed through the dynamics of international liquidity cycles. Financial flows in peripheral countries, although residual, have a disproportionate impact from the perspective of both external investors and the peripheral countries. In other words, despite being residual in nature, these flows can destabilize domestic exchange and capital markets due to their volume relative to the size of these markets. A case validating the existence of this vulnerability is that of Turkey, where the study of Turkey's socio-economic context since the 1990s, along with the analysis of the components of the Financial Account between 2006 and 2019, highlighted the influence of Portfolio Investments and Other Investments on the volatility of the Financial Account and the economic instability of the country. Short-term and speculative resources, captured by these components, dominate the analyzed flows, while Direct Investment, being more stable, is less significant. Thus, Turkey, like other peripheral countries, is subject to the dynamics of external resource availability linked to the sentiment and risk perception of global investors. The inflow of speculative and short-term capital occurs in favorable moments, but its rapid withdrawal during periods of economic stress affects the local monetary policy, leaving the country vulnerable to shocks and hindering the pursuit of sustainable long-term growth. Therefore, the international monetary and financial asymmetry exposes peripheral countries to volatile movements in capital flows, negatively impacting their economies and limiting their ability to implement consistent long-term monetary policies.