Crescimento econômico e políticas industriais para o desenvolvimento regional baseadas em benefícios fiscais: convergência de renda e efeitos do PRODUZIR nos municípios goianos

Abstract

The present study seeks to provide a multidimensional point of view of the sigma-convergence and beta-convergence hypothesis (absolute and conditional) among the municipalities of Goiás in the period between 2005 and 2017, in addition to estimating the effect of the PRODUZIR program on the state's economic growth process. To analyze the existence of sigma-convergence, inequality indicators were used, such as the de Gini index and the coefficient of variation of GPD per capita. The results were favorable to this type of convergence, but emphasize that this process did not occur in a linear way and that the concentration of income in a few municipalities is still a problem to be addressed by public policy makers in Goiás. To test the existence of beta-convergence, unlike the traditional methodology based on regressions using cross-sectional data, models with dynamic panel data were used. The results obtained by the system generalized method of moments estimator point to the existence of absolute and conditional beta-convergence in the period of analysis. An interesting result is that the convergence speed increases when controlled for specific characteristics of the municipalities, going from 1.08% in the absolute version to 3.73% in the conditional version. Furthermore, there is empirical evidence that current expenditures significantly and negatively affect economic growth. On the other hand, capital expenditure, transfers from the Municipal Participation Fund and the growth of the three main economic sectors (services, industry and agriculture) have positive effects on the convergence process. The PRODUZIR program had a positive coefficient, however, the magnitude of the coefficient obtained in the econometric model is small, showing that despite the high fiscal cost and the misallocation that the program generates, its effect on economic growth is low. Thus, PRODUZIR as an industrial policy focused on regional development had no expected effect on the growth of the economy of Goiás. Another criticism of the program is its strong concentration in high-income municipalities in the southern and central regions of the state. Final, the proxies for human capital and population growth were not statistically significant.