Taxa de câmbio real efetiva e crescimento econômico: uma análise para a economia de Moçambique (1980-2019)

Abstract

Abstact:The objective of this dissertation is to carry out an empirical investigation on the effects of the level of exchange, misalignment and exchange rate volatility on the economic growth of Mozambique between 1980 and 2019. With this work it intends to answer the following questions: Is the effective real exchange rate a relevant variable to the economy of Mozambique? What is the impact of exchange rate volatility and exchange rate misalignment for Mozambique's economic growth? The theoretical and empirical literature is not consensual regarding the effects of the exchange rate on economic growth, but most of this literature advocates for a positive effect of exchange rate undervaluation on economic growth and a negative effect of the misalignment, overvaluation and volatility of exchange rate on economic growth. These are the hypotheses for this work. The econometric investigation carried out for this work involved the estimation of growth equations to measure the effect of misalignment and exchange rate volatility on economic growth, through the analysis of cointegration using autoregressive distributed lag models (ARDL), followed by the respective robustness tests so that the results are valid. In addition to the variables of interest, the equations included control variables, such as capital, labor, human capital index, trade opening and financial development index. The econometric evidence showed that in the long run, the effective real exchange rate positively impacted Mozambique's economic growth while exchange rate volatility negatively affected growth. Exchange rate misalignment, undervaluation and exchange rate overvaluation were not statistically significant. On the other hand, in the short run, the effective real exchange rate, undervaluation and overvaluation have negatively affected Mozambique's economic growth.