Análise estatística descritiva do mercado de renda fixa brasileiro no período de 2015-2019

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the movement of the Brazilian fixed income market. As objects of study, three fictitious fixed income securities are defined with pre-fixed, post-fixed and hybrid indexes. The CDI (Interbank Deposit Certificate) was considered as a benchmark for post-fixed fixed income securities while the IPCA (National Consumer Price Index) for hybrid securities. The period defined for the analysis is from January 2015 to December 2019, justified because it is a period closer to the present and because it is characterized by significant changes in the fixed income scenario in the country. Dispersion measures such as standard deviation and also the rate as a measure of central tendency n were used as the main instruments in the search for understanding the behavior of the indexers within the period under study. In the theoretical framework, the entire national financial system is presented together with its composition in order to understand the origin of fixed income securities. In addition, the composition of exemplified fixed income financial products will also be explained, which is important to understand the analysis of market movement. It was concluded that in periods when there is an end to a rise in interest rates, fixed-rate securities become more attractive as they guarantee greater profitability during the fall in interest rates. Post-fixed loans are attractive after a fall in interest rates in order to obtain yields that follow market movements. Finally, hybrid securities linked to the IPCA are advised when both pre and post bond yields are below inflation, also protecting the investor's purchasing power.