O ciclo econômico brasileiro entre 2008 e 2019: uma análise de acordo com a taxonomia de Hyman Minsky

Abstract

This work aims to understand which of the three taxonomies proposed by Hyman Minsky, be they hedge, speculative or Ponzi, prevails in Brazil between 2008 and 2019. It seeks to build a proxy that classifies the Brazilian moment within the minskyan cycle through the study of the relationships between several historical series that, together, may point to a more beneficial economic-financial situation for one of these three nomenclatures, without being necessary to study balance sheets of companies. Thus, the method used involves an explanatory bias, so that there is a link between the qualitative and the quantitative side, as Minsky's Financial Instability Hypothesis is used as a basis for analyzing country data. In addition, the main economic policies are addressed, in order to clarify how they affected the behavior of the indicators. It will be possible to observe that, in most years of the period, the interaction between the historical series contributed to the predominance of a hedge situation, and the formation of a speculative context surpasses the first type, mainly from 2011 to 2013, because of a credit bubble fostered by the public sector through expansionary policies and reduction in the interest rate, which brought about a productive increase and a resumption of investments. This study provides a better understanding of how the Brazilian economy operated between 2008 and 2019, pointing out if there were financially fragile structures and how the agents behaved to do so.