Crescimento econômico e emissões de gases de efeito estufa: uma análise de cointegração em painel para os estados brasileiros de 2002 a 2015

Abstract

The objective of this dissertation is to outline the regional profile of Brazilian Greenhouse Gas Emissions (GHG) between 2002 and 2015. It also checks if the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis applies to the term methodology for estimating long-term cointegration vectors by Fully Modified Least Squares (FMOLS) and Dynamic Least Squares (DOLS). The descriptive analysis indicates a strong heterogeneity for Brazilian regional emissions: while the North and Northeast regions have their emissions predominantly linked to agricultural activity and deforestation, the South, Northeast and Southeast regions also have emissions related to consumption and generation of energy. In general, there is a strong preponderance of emissions from land use changes, which indicates the need to strengthen environmental legislation and intensify the technological complexity national production. The empirical results did not find evidence of a ECK for the Brazilian states in the period. Before, both for the estimation of the elasticity and semi-elasticity vectors, there is an "N" -shaped curve for the relation between per capita GHG emissions and per capita income. Therefore, the results show that there is no expectation in Brazil that economic growth, by itself, implies environmental significative improvements.The objective of this dissertation is to outline the regional profile of Brazilian Greenhouse Gas Emissions (GHG) between 2002 and 2015. It also checks if the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis applies to the term methodology for estimating long-term cointegration vectors by Fully Modified Least Squares (FMOLS) and Dynamic Least Squares (DOLS). The descriptive analysis indicates a strong heterogeneity for Brazilian regional emissions: while the North and Northeast regions have their emissions predominantly linked to agricultural activity and deforestation, the South, Northeast and Southeast regions also have emissions related to consumption and generation of energy. In general, there is a strong preponderance of emissions from land use changes, which indicates the need to strengthen environmental legislation and intensify the technological complexity national production. The empirical results did not find evidence of a ECK for the Brazilian states in the period. Before, both for the estimation of the elasticity and semi-elasticity vectors, there is an "N" -shaped curve for the relation between per capita GHG emissions and per capita income. Therefore, the results show that there is no expectation in Brazil that economic growth, by itself, implies environmental significative improvements.