Estrutura de investimentos e mudança estrutural: configuração recente e implicações da dinâmica setorial do investimento brasileiro

Abstract

Given the importance of the dynamics and composition of sectoral investment for the performance of the economy, this study aimed to analyze the recent configuration (2000-2015) of the Brazilian investment structure, underlining their implications for the growth of aggregate industrial investment and for the conformation industrial and productive structures. Proposals based on the Principle of Effective Demand and on the approach of the structuralist school of thought were used as the theoretical background. These allowed to highlight the central position of the investment variable and the industrial production matrix in the development dynamics, considering the wide heterogeneity of the effects on the economic dynamics of the branches of the Brazilian industry. Through the analysis of the sectoral data, we observed in the different conjunctures a greater relative dynamism of the investment of the industrial branches of less technological content, which has, on the one hand, corroborated the consolidation of an Investment Structure concentrated in activities intensive in natural resources and , on the other, a nucleus of intra-industry regressive specialization movement that has created bases for the process of deindustrialization associated with the Brazilian economy since the mid-1980s. Through the methodology of decomposition of investment growth, it was verified that sectoral microeconomic decisions which have engendered declines in the growth of industrial investment are coordinated by the branches of higher technological content. These have strengthened the structurally low rate of industrial investment that has compromised the industry's participation in the Brazilian productive structure and reproduced a pattern of burdensome development for the population.