Os determinantes das exportações convencionais e das cadeias globais de valor: uma análise em painel

Abstract

The main goal of this dissertation is to understand and investigate empirically the performance and differences of conventional exports and exports related to the Global Value Chains (GVC) in response two determinants: i) exchange rate in three concepts (level, volatility and misalignment) ; ii) and income effect; besides the importance of the international financial crisis. For this purpose, three panel data methods (Fixed Effects, System GMM and Difference GMM) were used for a set of 59 developed and developing countries between 2000 and 2011, as well a descriptive analysis in different evolution perspectives of the degree of participation of the economies in the GVC. Two hypotheses were examined and confirmed: 1) the price elasticity of exports related to GVC are higher than the price elasticity of conventional exports; 2) the increase in exchange rate volatility has lower or no impact on exports linked to the GVC. One of the contributions of the paper, not contemplated in the literature, is the finding that countries with larger backward participations in GVC are subject to lesser effects of a misalignment around an equilibrium real effective exchange rate. Moreover, it can be affirmed that the subprime crisis generated more prominent negative effects on the exports associated with the GVC than traditional exports, and no significant differences in the income effect between the two exports observed. Other results obtained by this work are the conclusions that the insertion in the GVC persist strongly regionalized and Brazil is still in the periphery of such phenomenon, in contrast the other developing countries analyzed presented significant growth in the participation of the Global Value Chains.