Comparação dos métodos determinístico e probabilístico na elaboração do cronograma de uma obra

Abstract

To plan a work means, in a summarized way, to coordinate, guide and control all the activities involved in its execution. Especially in times of crisis and economic uncertainty, Brazil's current scenario, an assertive planning is indispensable to avoid non-compliance with deadlines and their consequences, guaranteeing companies in the sector a greater competitiveness in the market. The schedule can be understood as the implementation of the planning, since it groups and establishes important information and documents for the progress of the work, previously giving the manager an understanding of the activities that will be carried out, pointing out the critical points in its execution. In this context, this study aims to compare the deterministic and probabilistic methods in the elaboration of a work schedule, analyzing its advantages and disadvantages. In this way, the probabilistic estimation, obtained by the application of the PERT method, was compared to two deterministic estimates, one analogous and one parametric. The results showed a similarity in the time of completion of the work between the PERT and analogical deterministic estimates, while the parametric estimation presented significantly different results. However, both methods are considered adequate in the elaboration of the schedule, since they allow the manager to define the best methodology to be used for the elaboration of the schedule, depending on the nature and magnitude of the project.