Previsão de demanda: Estudo de caso na padaria de uma empresa do ramo supermercadista.

Abstract

The demand forecasting, as a strategic planning tool, becomes necessary for a company to remain in the market with the continuous increase of competitiveness and competition. Managers of large companies coexist daily with the uncertainties imposed by the consumer market, so the "how much" to produce is a constant challenge. This paper aims to present the main quantitative methods of forecasting demand to bakery of supermarket’s department. In order to find a more assertive method, the data provided by the company were separated according to their demand behavior. After the data were organized, the forecasts and their respective errors were calculated, so the methods that were adequate were: simple softening and moving average. The models were satisfactory and can be used by the company as a demand forecasting tool.