Crescimento econômico, composição dos gastos públicos e Lei de Responsabilidade Fiscal: uma análise para os municípios brasileiros

Abstract

The aim of this work is to evaluate which municipal expenses as part of the total expenditure were "productive", that is, if they showed a positive influence on the economic growth of the Brazilian municipalities in the period 1999-2012, taking into account the hypotheses raised by Devarajan et al. (1996), which suggest that certain expenditures are marginally "productive" but may become "unproductive" if overpaid, and so that a rise in growth due to the change in the composition of expenditure can occur without a change in total expenditure. The expenditures used were selected according to the economic classification (primary and capital expenditures), as well as their main expenditures (personnel and investment expenses), and functions (education and culture, health and sanitation expenses, communication, Transport and defense). In addition to these expenditures traditionally seen in the literature, it was investigated whether the limit for municipal expenditures in personnel expenses of 60% of the current net annual revenue, defined by the LRF, is at a "productive" level of this expenditure. In this sense, it is still analyzed whether the constitutionally established parameters for annual municipal expenditures in the education and health sectors, which are at least 25% and 15% of total income, respectively, are efficient in terms of the effects on economic growth. In order to reach such objectives, panel models were estimated, based on the empirical model of Rocha and Giuberti (2007), considering fixed effects and the Two Step System GMM, so that the analyzed results refer to the method of fixed effects, since the instruments used in the dynamic panel were shown to be invalid. The results indicate that municipal expenditures with communication and defense are "productive" up to a portion of, in that order, 15% and 13% of total expenditure, corroborating what was suggested by Devarajan et al. (1996); The expenses with constitutional ties, however, seem to go in the opposite direction to what has been suggested by these authors, demonstrating that "unproductive" expenditures can become "productive" at a certain point. This turning point for personnel expenses would be 65% of net current revenue, above the limit defined by the LRF; While education and health expenditures have a positive influence on economic growth in portions of 34% and 24% of total revenue, respectively, and these values are also above constitutional parameters.