Política fiscal, equilíbrio externo e déficits gêmeos em um modelo stock-flow consistent pós-keynesiano com economia aberta

Abstract

This paper seeks to make a brief review of the external constraint models and stock-flow consistent and, after that, analyze the impact of fiscal policy and public debt dynamic in a post-keynesian model, investigating the effects and limitations. The model tries to bring internal consistency and track coherently flows and stocks in an integrated economic system, given that fiscal policy impacts all over the economy and because of that the modelling and links among sectors must be properly considered. Even rejecting many neoclassical hypothesis, fiscal policy has limitation to stimulate permanently economic growth because, if it’s incompatible with balance of payment equilibrium, the external debt would rise and become unsustainable. Finally, this hypothesis is tested empirically and it is verified that the dynamics of the fiscal policy and of the external position are associated when specified according to the specification suggested by Godley and Cripps (1983) and modified by Pérez Caldentey (2007).