A reforma previdenciária: uma análise do saldo deficitário do regime geral de previdência social e sua relação com as mudanças demográficas do Brasil

Abstract

The purpose of the study is to recognize the need to adopt a new Brazilian welfare reform, in view of the results of General Social Welfare Policy (RGPS) and the demographic growth in the last 11 years. Therefore, it was compared the collections with the expenses evolution during the period in question, and related the expenses with the Gross Domestic Product (PIB), realizing the demographic growth of the period of study and the PEC 55 period, and comparing with the RGPS actuarial projection in order to realize welfare future decisions. It was used datas from Budget Execution Summary Report (RREO), Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) and the Brazilian Central Bank (BACEN). The results showed that, during the study period, the RGPS presented deficit and, comparing the expenses with the PIB, it was visualized a worrying situation, as long as represent more than 5% of that. From the demographic growth study, it realized that the inactive population growth becomes accentuated during the period, and the RGPS actuarial projection proved the demographic analysis. The results demonstrated the RGPS imbalance and the need to adopt new measures to the welfare system sustainability.