Desindustrialização nos estados brasileiros: uma análise em painel para o período 1996-2014

Abstract

This study seeks to show if a possible negative deindustrialization process is in progress in Brazilian states, and whether it is due to the mismanagement of economic policies and also to the real exchange rate and favorable prices for primary products (Dutch disease). For this, we used a descriptive analysis of Brazilian states industrial indicators from 1996 to 2014 and estimates panel data models to assess the determinants of that process. The descriptive analysis of Value Industrial Transformation (VTI) share in GDP, manufacturing employment, productivity, industrial density and trade indicate that a possible deindustrialization process is underway, but this statement is shown complex while some indicators point to the opposite direction. The next step to confirm the finding was the estimations of panel models, using the dependent variables: the VTI share in the GDP state and the manufacturing employment share. The econometric results indicate, overall, direct relationship of real effective exchange rate and the openess degree of manufactured products, as well as statistical significance of them, about industrial variables states. Also, there was a negative relationship and statistically significant for commodities price index and interest rate. Thus, the evidences indicate a possible negative deindustrialization process on the way to Dutch disease and also on the way to economic policies.