Volatilidade da conta financeira do balanço de pagamentos: os casos do Brasil, México, Argentina e Chile

Abstract

The main purpose of this essay is to analyze the Financial Account movement of Brazilian, Mexican, Argentinean and Chilean Balance of Payments. The specific objective is to find which financial flows are most volatile during the administrative and flexible exchange rate periods. Moreover, the thesis intends to look for the inter relation between these flows and domestic macroeconomic variables, focusing on the similarities and disparities between each country experience. To accomplish this, it was based on Post Keynesian theory. Within this perspective, some capital flows are resulting from speculative and expectational dynamics because of the non-ergodic world, where there is uncertainty about the future and money is non neutral, impacting on real variables. In this way, it is researched the financial openness process of each country analyzed, since it is obviously that the financial integration contributes to speculative flows reception propensity. Finally, it was realized a volatility study to identify which Financial sub accounts are the most volatile in each country and how are the flows movements in different exchanges rate experiences. The empirical results indicated a huge similarity between the Brazilian, Mexican and Argentinean experiences. In these countries the main volatility elements are Foreign Debt Securities, Foreign Loans and Financing and Domestic Money and Deposits. In addition, it was showed that these financial flows have speculative dynamics that are susceptible to damage during instability periods. The exception was the Chilean experience, both in financial openness process and empirical results. This last finding can be considered a resource to future researches.