Ensaios sobre a dinâmica e os determinantes das exportações

Abstract

The main goal of the three essays developed in this work is to investigate the main export determinants and its dynamics. In order to fulfill this task we develop three essays where one of them is based on panel data analysis and the remaining two based on vector autoregressive analysis (VAR). On methodological grounds, we can say that the first essay is based on a dynamic System GMM estimation for the export dynamics (90 countries) and the empirics is associated to a temporal dimension which involves the estimation for three different decades, 1980-1989, 1990-1999 and 2000-2008 and it involves six different model specification. The second and third essays are based on VAR models where the second one seeks to analyze six selected Latin America and Asia countries including Argentina, Brazil, Mexico, Chile, China and India. The idea is to understand each country specificities and differences that are part of their international experience as emerging economies. The third essay has a regional perspective since it investigates export performance for Minas Gerais from 1996 to 2009 and the empirical investigation is based on three export models. One crucial empirical contribution of this work is the construction of a more detailed and more realistic for foreign export demand (income) based on the main trade partners which is clear a novelty aspect since many other empirical works on this literature uses the USA GDP or world imports as proxies for foreign income and this can be considered as a limited proxy to capture external export demand. One of the main conclusions we can draw from these three essays is that emerging economies have experienced a significant change in their export structure and patterns, especially when considering the new and crucial role of China in the international trade.