A utilização de indicadores de desempenho e o valor de mercado de sociedades anônimas: uma análise de empresas norte e latino americanas

Abstract

The performance ratios have an important role inside and outside the companies. Internally, they are responsible for operationalise and measure each specific objective tracked by managers. Externally, they serve as flags of the situation of the company to stakeholders, influencing the market value of the organization. Therefore, an analysis through the use of ratios, using accounting, technical and market data from the company, can contribute to maximize their value and the shareholders earnings. But such analysis are not consensus on the financial literature. There are ways to be travelled, so far. One of these ways is a combination of business performance pointed by ratios with the future market value of these companies, trying to verify the validity of these ratios to provide valuations and / or devaluation of shares in a two years time period. This paper s objective is to verify the use of performance ratios functionality - fundamentalists, capital structure, liquidity, activity, profitability, market and technical ratios - for companies from different countries and industries considering the last three years to predict the market value for the next two years. It uses a quantitative research, which demands statistical techniques and multivariate analysis (multiple linear regression and binary logistic regression). For the goals it is a descriptive research. As technical procedures used, it can be classified into two categories: documentary and expost-fact research. The results show that, generally, the performance ratios - fundamentalists, capital structure, liquidity, activity, profitability, market and technical ratios - of the last three years can predict satisfactorily the market value of the next two years. The exception is made for Finance and Insurance industry. The ratios that are more related to the future market value of the corporations were the: Average from 2002 to 2004 of Enterprise Value, Average from 2002 to 2004 of EBIT + Net financial expenses, Range from 2002 to 2004 of the income / Stock Price, Average from 2002 to 2004 of EBITDA, Average from 2002 to 2004 of Capital Employed, Average from 2002 to 2004 of Floating Capital, Range from 2002 to 2004 of Return over Assets, Range from 2002 to 2004 of Gross Margin, Range from 2002 to 2004 of Sales to Stock, Range from 2002 to 2004 of Investment / equity. The main groups that are related with the future market value are: profitability, capital structure and market ratios. All the logistic regression models (for the set of companies and by industries) can discern over 60% of evaluation and devaluation cases, which is considered to be satisfactory. These results are limited to an specific historical data performance ratios for the past three years (2002 to 2004) and the market value of the subsequent years (2005 to 2006) and may not be generalized to other periods or set of periods. For future papers it is intended, primarily, to explain the problem presented by logistic regression models, unable to classify the majority devaluation cases on the next two years; verify the applicability of these results to other years and set of periods and separate the analysis by countries to verify the efficiency of each market.