A emergência do Irã como nova potência nuclear: caminho alternativo para a paz no Oriente Médio?

Abstract

The research addressed the Iranian nuclear program and analyzed the role that acquiring nuclear weapons might play in easing tensions in the Middle East, focusing on the relationship between Iran, Israel, and the United States. The study was divided into five parts: it began with an introduction to the subject, followed by a theoretical discussion on the role of nuclear weapons in international politics and the concept of nuclear deterrence. Next, the study examined the Iranian adversaries in question—the United States and Israel—and analyzed recent military conflicts involving Iran and these two opponents. Subsequently, the results and final discussion were evaluated. The study concluded that Iran’s potential possession of nuclear weapons would act as a factor for regional stability, provided certain requirements were met, such as the effective management of deterrence and the maintenance of a nuclear arsenal sufficient to ensure a retaliatory capability. Furthermore, the feasibility of the United States and Israel using military force to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons was analyzed, leading to the conclusion that war is not the best option.