Dependência das exportações de commodities e industrialização: desafios de crescimento nas economias africanas

Abstract

Commodity export dependence is a striking feature of several African economies, influencing their productive structure and economic growth trajectory. Although natural resource exploitation may generate significant revenues in the short run, the economic literature suggests that specialization in primary products may be associated with adverse effects, such as deindustrialization and limited long-term growth. In this context, this study investigates the relationship between commodity export dependence, (de)industrialization, and economic growth in African economies. The research hypothesis is that a high dependence on natural resource exports hinders industrialization and, consequently, exerts a negative impact on African economic growth. To test this hypothesis, annual data for African countries from 2000 to 2020 are used to estimate dynamic panel data models through System-GMM. Per capita GDP growth is used as the dependent variable, while manufacturing share and the interaction between commodity export dependence and industrialization are the main regressors. The results indicate that the manufacturing sector has a positive impact on economic growth, reinforcing the importance of industrialization as a driver of development. On the other hand, the interaction between manufacturing and commodity export dependence presents a negative coefficient, suggesting that specialization in primary products reduces the positive effect of industry on economic growth. These findings are consistent with the Dutch disease and natural resource curse hypotheses, showing that excessive commodity dependence may undermine productive diversification and the sustainability of long-term growth. Therefore, policies aimed at productive diversification, strengthening the industrial sector, and improving institutions are essential to reduce economic vulnerability and promote more robust growth in African economies.